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9 Staking systems
Many staking systems have been formulated in an attempt to "beat the bookie" but it is still widely accepted that there is no staking system that can make an unprofitable system profitable over time. Below are several widely used systems along with a brief explanation and risk analysis:
- Fixed stakes – a traditional system of staking the same amount on each selection. This method is good for conservative punters if the stake is kept below 5% of the bank.
- Fixed profits – the stakes vary based on the odds to ensure the same profit from each winning selection. This method is very good for conservative punters, although if the profitability of one's bets is independent of the odds the bettor is simply reducing his or her cash flow.
- Due-column betting – A variation on fixed profits betting in which the bettor sets a target profit and then calculates a bet size that will make this profit, adding any losses to the target. For example, to make a target of $100 profit a bettor would wager $50 at odds of 2 to 1. If the bet loses, the target becomes $150. If the next bet is also at odds of 2 to 1, the wager therefore becomes $75. This type of wagering is ruinous in the long run..
- Kelly (optimal) – fair odds (in the European/decimal format) need to be estimated by the punter and then the stake can be calculated using
- Stake= (Odds/(Fair odds-1))/(Odds-1) Many times used with a divider (most commonly 4 or 8) depending on your bankroll (for betting)
- This system was developed for baccarat but is widely recommended for horserace betting. In betting horseraces the stake is further adjusted to allow for inaccuracy in estimating fair odds. Computer simulations suggest that in betting horseraces Kelly betting increases losses during losing streaks, that it fails to demonstrate superiority over fixed stakes betting until large numbers of bets have been made (a drawback in horserace betting because the bettor usually has no reasonable expectation that any betting advantage he or she has will last over a long series of bets), and that its profitability has been exaggerated by the use of inappropriate statistical analyses.
- Martingale – A system based on staking enough each time to recover losses from previous bet(s) until you get a winner. The Martingale is a guaranteed way to failure - the only way it would work is if you have an unlimited bankroll, your bookmaker has no limit on the size of bets and you are immortal!
10 See also
11 Bibliography
- Brisman, Andrew. American Mensa Guide to Casino Gambling: Winning Ways
- Steinmetz, Andrew. The Gaming Table: Its Votaries and Victims Gutenberg text
- Thorp, Edward O. Beat the Dealer: A Winning Strategy for the Game of Twenty-One
- Reith, Gerda, Age of Chance
12 External links
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