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Home > Amara's law

We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.

It was put forth by Roy Amara of the Institute for the Future . It is sometimes called Saffo's law or Clarke's law.

It echoes a quote by Joseph Licklider that says: "A modern maxim says: People tend to overestimate what can be done in one year and to underestimate what can be done in five or ten years," which occurs in a footnote on p. 17 of Joseph Licklider, "Libraries of the Future," MIT Press, 1965.

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