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The number of earthquakes generally follow a power law, as well (see Zipf's law). They are rated in size by a logarithmic scale: Magnitude (calculated in different ways). An M3 earthquake has about 30 times more energy than an M2. Also, M2 earthquakes occur 10 times more often than M3's, which are 10 times more frequent than M4's, etc. Some natural phenomena follows power laws because it is fractal, self-similar over all scales. As a result of this ubiquity, people generally see 'patterns' or 'things' in any fractal distribution. Thus, the background of stars has its constellations, or you may see a duck in a fluffy cloud. One branch of mathematics that deals with pattern analysis explicitly is called Ramsey Theory.
Like stocks, the pattern of earthquakes is quite capable of being correlated with anything -- once! People have 'associated' the onset of an earthquake with such things as animal behavior, the weather, motion in the level of water wells, etc. Unfortunately, unlike clouds, patterns which might be useful in predicting quakes are not as evident as that rain is more likely when it is cloudy than when it is not. The science of statistics is primarily concerned with discovering patterns and quantifying evidence of associations or correlations in data, regardless of cause. For example, a statistical link may be established between consumption of fatty food and cardiovascular disease, just as there is a statistical link between cigarette smoking and various illnesses.
To be socially useful, earthquake predictions do not have to be ultra precise in magnitude, time and place. Even predictions of a general nature can be quite useful if they are based on scientific principles. For example, the Parkfield region of California has experienced a magnitude 6 earthquake approximately every 22 years since some time in the 1800s. This led researchers to predict that a similar quake would hit the region in the mid-1980s. Because of the potential value of the scientific data that could be obtained from monitoring seismic data prior to a quake, and because the Parkfield area is relatively quiet - in comparison to most urban areas with respect to man made seismic activity, the region was heavily instrumented with all varieties of monitoring equipment.
The predicted quake failed to materialize on the expected fault, however a sizable quake did occur in nearby Coalinga, California in 1983. Perhaps the Coalinga quake released some of the stress on San Andreas Fault near Parkfield, and was in effect a substitute for the missing quake. If that is the case, then one would have expected that the next quake in the Parkfield region would be sometime in the mid 2000s. Indeed another killer quake occurred near Parkfield, this time in San Simeon, CaliforniaSan Simeon ( ZIP Code: 93452) is a settlement on the Pacific coast of San Luis Obispo County, California notable in two respects: Its position along Pacific Coast Highway is almost precisely halfway between Los Angeles and San Francisco, each of those tow in DecemberDecember is the twelfth and last month of the year in the Gregorian Calendar, with 31 days. From the Latin decem for " ten" (it was originally the tenth month of the year, before January and February were inserted). The winter solstice falls in December. 20032003 is a common year starting on Wednesday (link will take you to calendar), and also: The International Year of Freshwater The European Disability Year Summary Perhaps the defining global event of the year 2003 was the Invasion of Iraq launched by the U. Regrettably, the San Simeon quake of December 2003 produced two fatalities in the town of Paso RoblesPaso Robles (El Paso de Robles) is a city located in San Luis Obispo County, California. As of the 2000 census, the city had a total population of 24,297. A resort city located on the Salinas River and north of San Luis Obispo, California, it is known for.
While it might be desirable to be able to predict a specific quake, of a particular magnitude on a given day, the more socially useful predictions in fact are the predictions that a particular geographic region might be especialy likely to have a major seismic event within a particular time frame. That is because if it could be determined that a killer quake was definitely going to hit an area, even as vaguely as 'soon', then it becomes possible for regional planners to allocate resources for such projects as urban redevelopment, retrofitting, etc., in those areas where the commitment of a portion of otherwise finite public capital will have the greatest public benefit.
Predicting such things as a small earthquake in California 'any day now', might be somewhat like saying a horse will win the Kentucky Derby - in fact a group of scientists at the University of California, Los AngelesThe University of California, Los Angeles popularly known as UCLA is a public, coeducational university situated in the neighborhood of Westwood within the City of Los Angeles. It is the second-oldest campus of the University of California as well as the, lead by Dr. Vladimir Keilis-BorokVladimir Keilis-Borok was born in Moscow, Russia on July 31, 1921. He is a geophysicist. In 1948, he received a PhD in mathematical geophysics from the Academy of Sciences in Moscow. Recently, his team of researchers have used new methods for earthquake p, predicted that a quake similar to the Paso Robles quake would strike in a 12,000 square mile (31,100 km) area of Southern CaliforniaSouthern California sometimes called SoCal is the southern portion of the state of California. Geographically, the division between central and southern California is customarily at the Tehachapi Mountains. Politically, the region is defined roughly by th within a time frame of a few months. However, this predicted earthquake never materialized.
As scientists study earthquakes they will become more precise in their estimates of seismic hazard, using such advanced tools as real-time GPS.
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