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It is attributed to Gordon E. Moore (a co-founder of Intel, not to be confused with the philosopher George Edward Moore). Moore outlined his "law" in 1965. His original empirical observation was that the number of components on semiconductor chips with lowest per-component cost doubles roughly every 12 months, and he conjectured that the trend will stay for at least 10 years. In 1975, Moore revised his estimate for the expected doubling time, arguing that it was slowing down to about two years (see the external link below).
The "law" has been formulated in numerous redactions that are sometimes only loosely linked to Moore's initial observation and less well-motivated empirically:
Historical analysis of Moore's law has shown that its interpretations have qualitatively changed over the years and that it has not very accurately described developments in semiconductor technology. For example, CPU monthly shows a month-by-month display of Top Processors from Intel and AMDFor other possible meanings of AMD see AMD (disambiguation Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. AMD ( NYSE:AMD) is a manufacturer of integrated circuits based in Sunnyvale, California. It is the second-largest supplier of x86 compatible processors, and a leading which gives relatively little justification for believing the law continues to operate as stated.
The evident appeal of the concept, the proliferation of formulations, its tendency to self-replicate in each technology generation, and the evolution of new interpretations is characteristic of a memesmiley is an example of a visual meme. Once seen, you are likely to copy it, reproduce it and show it to others. A meme (rhymes with "dream", but comes from memetic and memory) is a unit of information that replicates from brains or retention systems, suc.
Although Moore's law was initially made in the form of an observation and prediction, the more widely it became accepted the more it served as a goal for an entire industry—driving both marketing and engineering departments within semiconductor manufacturers to focus enormous energy aiming for the specified increase in processing power that it was presumed one or more of their competitors would soon actually attain. In this regard it can be viewed as a self-fulfilling prophecyA self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that, in being made, actually causes itself to become true. For example, in the stock market, if it is widely believed that a crash is imminent, this may reduce confidence and actually cause such a crash. Or, if. However, just as the "law" has itself taken on mythic status somewhat independent of actual facts, its significance to technology growth may be prone to a degree of mythologising.
The implications of Moore's law for computer component suppliers is very significant. A typical major design project (such as an all-new CPU or hard drive) takes between two and five years to reach production-ready status. In consequence, component manufacturers face enormous timescale pressures—just a few weeks delay in a major project can spell the difference between great success and massive losses, even bankruptcy.
Expressed as "a doubling every 18 months", Moore's law suggests the phenomenal progress of technology in recent years. Expressed on a shorter timescale, however, Moore's law equates to an average performance improvement in the industry as a whole of over 1% a week. For a manufacturer competing in the cut-throat CPU, hard drive or RAM markets, a new product that is expected to take three years to develop and is just two or three months late is 10 to 15% slower or larger in size than the directly competing products, and is usually unsellable.
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