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Psychohistory is the name of a fictional science in Isaac Asimov's Foundation universe, which combined history, psychology and mathematical statistics to create a (nearly) exact science of the behavior of very large populations of people, such as the Galactic Empire. Asimov used the analogy of a gas: in a gas, the motion of a single molecule is very difficult to predict, but the mass action of the gas can be predicted to a high level of accuracy. Asimov applied this concept to the population of the fictional Galactic Empire, which numbered in the quadrillions. The character responsible for the science's creation, Hari Seldon, established two postulates: that the population whose behaviour was modeled should be sufficiently large and that they should remain in ignorance of the results of the application of psychohistorical analyses.Later on in his career, Asimov described historical (pre-Seldon) origins of psychohistory. In The Robots of Dawn, which takes place thousands of years before Foundation, he describes roboticist Han Fastolfe's attempts to create the science based on careful observation of others, particularly his daughter Vasilia. In Prelude to Foundation we learn that it was in fact one of Fastolfe's robots, R. Daneel Olivaw, that manipulated Seldon into practical application of this science.
Precursors to Asimovian psychohistory exist elsewhere in the Western literary canon. In one of Arthur Conan Doyle's Sherlock HolmesSherlock Holmes is a fictional detective of the late 19th and early 20th century, created by British author and physician Arthur Conan Doyle. He is famous for his prowess at using logic and careful observation to solve cases. Holmes was said to have lived novels, a character describes the possibility of forecasting the behaviour of society using mathematical means. Also, Leo TolstoyLeo Nikolayevitch Tolstoy ( September 9, 1828 some sources say August 28 November 20, 1910) was a Russian novelist, reformer, and moral thinker, notable for his influence on Russian literature and politics. As a count, Tolstoy was a member of the Russian's War and PeaceWar and Peace Voyna i mir ) is an epic novel of Russian history and society by Leo Tolstoy, first published from 1865 to 1869, which tells the story of Russia during the Napoleonic Era. The Russian words for 'peace' and 'world' are homonyms, so the novel' postulates a mathematical regularity behind human actions, which is only apparent when studying large populations. Tolstoy's populations, the French and Russian armies during the Napoleonic Wars, are a billion times smaller than Asimov's, but the principle is much the same.
1 Asimov on psychohistory
On September 25September 25 is the 268th day of the year (269th in leap years). There are 97 days remaining. Events 275 M. Claudius Tacitus appointed Roman emperor by the senate. 303 On a voyage preaching the gospel, Saint Fermin of Pamplona was beheaded in Amiens, Fran, 19871987 is a common year starting on Thursday. Events January January 1 Nunavut's capital changes it name to Iqaluit from Frobisher Bay. January 3 Aretha Franklin becomes the first woman inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. January 4 An Amtrak train, Asimov gave an interview to New York Times reporter Terry Gross. In it, Gross asked him about psychohistory:
- Gross: What did you have in mind when you coined the term and the concept?
- Asimov: "Well, I wanted to write a short story about the fall of the Galactic Empire. I had just finished reading the Decline and Fall of the Roman EmpireThe History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire is a monumental work by Edward Gibbon. It is considered a landmark in the field of history, and is often considered the first "modern" history. It was published in six volumes, in quarto. Volume one [for] the second time, and I thought I might as well adapt it on a much larger scale to the Galactic Empire and get a story out of it. And my editor John CampbellJohn Wood Campbell, Jr. June 8, 1910 July 11, 1971) was the editor from 1938 until his death in 1971 of the science fiction magazine Astounding Science Fiction renamed Analog Science Fiction in 1960. During his editorship, he published the first stories o was much taken with the idea, and said he didn't want it wasted on a short story. He wanted an open-ended series so it lasts forever, perhaps. And so I started doing that. In order to keep the story going from story to story, I was essentially writing future history, and I had to make it sufficiently different from modern history to give it that science fictional touch. And so I assumed that the time would come when there would be a science in which things could be predicted on a probabilistic or statistical basis.
- Gross: Do you think that would be good if there really was such a science?
- Asimov: Well, I can't help but think it would be good, except that in my stories, I always have opposing views. In other words, people argue all possible... all possible... ways of looking at psychohistory and deciding whether it is good or bad. So you can't really tell. I happen to feel sort of on the optimistic side. I think if we can somehow get across some of the problems that face us now, humanity has a glorious future, and that if we could use the tenets of psychohistory to guide ourselves we might avoid a great many troubles. But on the other hand, it might create troubles. It's impossible to tell in advance.
